It is quite fun to try to predict the future and invest in companies in the sweet spot of your prognostications. Investing in long-term growth trends with short-term dislocations is a viable strategy, and we do this often. But finding the “next big thing” is entirely different and is fraught with pitfalls. Such positioning comes…
We all know that market timing doesn’t work. It is a fool’s errand to sell it all, hoping to buy it back lower. But the temptation to do so is heady when the market is in decline. When the near future looks scary, it’s easy to think that perhaps selling now and buying back later…
With almost 40 years of investing experience, Baumgarten is revealing how he applies keen knowledge and his eye for tracking the latest financial developments to Segment Wealth’s advisory practice. “During inflation, cash is under attack, so items such as property and investments will generally do better. Specifically assets like collectibles, ranches, prime real estate, even…
For those who know me well, you then know about my family’s long-term friendship with Walter Thomas. Walter has worked for my family since 1963 when he was 16, and I was 4, and I still introduce him as my brother. To this day, Walter takes care of my mom, doing her shopping and honey-dos….
Since early 2020, the stock market has made headlines with its unexpected ebbs and flows. This prompts people who otherwise had their money invested elsewhere to try their hand at investing in stocks. The crazy swings also set off alarms of panic in others. The stock market is always tumultuous, and weathering the storm is…
The field of economics has long assumed that people make decisions that optimize their own utility, and to derive the greatest benefit for themselves. However, psychological studies show that we humans do not do this, but rather we often make irrational choices, and we do so predictably. In this case, irrational investing choices. The reason we…
Back in the pre-Covid glory days, when you could have charity golf tournaments, I played in the LifeHouse tournament at Carlton Woods. I’m not much of a golfer, and because it’s such a time-consuming hobby, I tend to stick with things for which I have a natural propensity. I mention this because this tournament was…
2020 was certainly an interesting year for stocks. We are glad it ended on a high note in the face of very challenging economic conditions. One reason for the divergence is that the markets are always forward-looking, and 2021 is likely to be a much better year for the economy. The market’s current action is…
When you’ve been in the investment business for 36 years, you tend to get the same sort of questions over and over again. One that I hear repeatedly surrounds how scary the current moment is. Yes, this is a scary moment in our nation’s history. However, scary moments also existed when the market crashed 27%…
One of the greatest misconceptions investors have embedded in their psyche is the assumption that predictions about the future are accurate or even valuable. I struggle with it too. To the extent that many other investors have the same information and believe the same thing, the value of opinion and acting on what is to…
As investors attempt to navigate choppy waters, we often come to realize how difficult it is to predict the future. Most tend to project today into tomorrow and more dangerously, we tend to act today based on what we feel about tomorrow. Investors who act on these predictive thoughts will soon be missing a few…
This year marks my 36th as an investment advisor. While I have memorized in great detail many of the curveballs the market has thrown my way in the last four decades, I’m still more a student of people than markets. Investing is an emotional art form with very little science, although Wall Street does a…
Hopefully you’re not tired of reading my blog posts about why long term investing pays off and why short term events are irrelevant. Surely they are not irrelevant to your emotion. If you listen to that emotion, you will make grave errors in judgment. Just remember a few important facts. Dark days of investing are…
One of the most difficult parts of investment decision making is just how much to trust your gut instinct. Every day presents a new set of variables, so there is never a playbook. Yet, when you think in the context of the very long term, history is an excellent guide. Warren Buffett says to “get…
Stock prices have been plunging for the last three weeks as coronavirus fears shut down many swaths of the global economy. Conferences and festivals are getting cancelled and surely cruise lines and airlines have no lines. There will be repercussions. Talks of recession may prove true, but that may also be brief. A vacuum of…
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