For over two years, economists have been predicting a recession. As their timing has proven quite poor, recent market gains were built on the expectations that they were flat-out wrong. Proper perspective is that recent market profits provide ballast to endure all the downside the market can throw at us, rather than letting our risk…
Like all industries, there is a pecking order in the investment arena, a hierarchy, if you will. At the top of the financial pyramid are the hedge fund and private equity businesses. At the base of the pyramid is the bank teller. While often grouped together, the hedge fund and private equity businesses are very…
We occasionally see portfolios come in for review containing structured notes. There are a wide variety of them, so I will speak generally. Not everything I will say applies to all, but likely most. A structured note is a bond from a brokerage firm or sponsor which represents an underlying derivative. Most often, this derivative…
Longtime readers of my musings will surely perceive me as part cynic with an optimistic bias. I would never be perceived as a pessimist. I’m a cynic when it comes to the nature of humans but an optimist when it comes to the nature of markets. To be a pessimist, I would have to believe…
Gil published a piece in Forbes Council titled, “Death and Taxes: Not So Certain After All.” After years of writing about the subject, long-time readers will surely realize how degrading taxes are to returns. With market liquidity at all-time highs and trading commissions now free, investors are seemingly incentivized to trade their accounts. The math…
It is quite fun to try to predict the future and invest in companies in the sweet spot of your prognostications. Investing in long-term growth trends with short-term dislocations is a viable strategy, and we do this often. But finding the “next big thing” is entirely different and is fraught with pitfalls. Such positioning comes…
We all know that market timing doesn’t work. It is a fool’s errand to sell it all, hoping to buy it back lower. But the temptation to do so is heady when the market is in decline. When the near future looks scary, it’s easy to think that perhaps selling now and buying back later…
The market continues its roller coaster ride for 2022. Typical stock mutual funds are down 20%. This decline is problematic enough, but adding insult to injury, taxes are about to make it worse for fund owners. Long-time readers will remember my numerous posts about the tax differences between various mutual fund structures. Since deferral or…
At the extremes of market moves, whether up or down, prognostications of the future begin in rapid-fire succession from soothsayers. When downside prevails, the predictions get increasingly dire. But this makes for huge missteps when an unforeseen event feeds a violent upside reversal. Just such a reversal happened earlier this week, with the market jumping…
With almost 40 years of investing experience, Baumgarten is revealing how he applies keen knowledge and his eye for tracking the latest financial developments to Segment Wealth’s advisory practice. “During inflation, cash is under attack, so items such as property and investments will generally do better. Specifically assets like collectibles, ranches, prime real estate, even…
For those who know me well, you then know about my family’s long-term friendship with Walter Thomas. Walter has worked for my family since 1963 when he was 16, and I was 4, and I still introduce him as my brother. To this day, Walter takes care of my mom, doing her shopping and honey-dos….
Segment is a big advocate of buying market exposure on dips. However, an investor must use this strategy within a certain context; otherwise, the tail can wag the dog. Buying the dips can have an undeniably profound positive impact on long-term results. Segment’s three primary equity strategies all had fantastic 2020 results, due primarily to…
Whatever you are doing that’s working, stop it. The cyclicality in investing is profoundly impactful. Unfortunately, most investors misread the signals and misplay their hand. They look for trends that have persisted and invest late in the game, often just in time for the reversal. Therefore, investing in last year’s loser is often a better…
2020 was certainly an interesting year for stocks. We are glad it ended on a high note in the face of very challenging economic conditions. One reason for the divergence is that the markets are always forward-looking, and 2021 is likely to be a much better year for the economy. The market’s current action is…
One of the greatest misconceptions investors have embedded in their psyche is the assumption that predictions about the future are accurate or even valuable. I struggle with it too. To the extent that many other investors have the same information and believe the same thing, the value of opinion and acting on what is to…
Recent large stock market swings bring about possible benefits by revising our personal tax strategies. For investors with large stock holdings in an IRA, the brutal market reset could make the math of a Roth IRA conversion even more compelling. Now could be a particularly good time because a decline in value would cause a…
Hopefully you’re not tired of reading my blog posts about why long term investing pays off and why short term events are irrelevant. Surely they are not irrelevant to your emotion. If you listen to that emotion, you will make grave errors in judgment. Just remember a few important facts. Dark days of investing are…
Sign up to receive Gil’s periodic musings about investment trends, the stock market, investor behavior and current affairs. Join today and receive a handful of Gil’s favorite past musings, and be the first to receive his freshly penned thoughts