When Good News Is Bad
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When Good News Is Bad

Last Friday’s non-farm jobs report was a blowout. Forecasts estimated that +200,000 jobs were added in January, but the number came in at +517,000. The market seemed to like it, but I don’t. The surprisingly strong job growth tells me that interest rate hikes are not having the desired effect. That’s the part I don’t…

Recession? Who Knows?

Recession? Who Knows?

Economist Paul Samuelson famously quipped that “the stock market has predicted nine of the past five recessions.” This tongue-in-cheek expression reflected his view of jumpy stock investors’ impact on the market, who pile in and out, often letting fear win out over fact. Current tea leaf readings might have one conclude that a recession is…

Rising Rates
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Rising Rates

The poor economic policy of the past is coming home to roost in the form of rising rates and spiraling inflation. To make matters worse, policy leaders spent months gaslighting us all, denying inflation’s presence when the signs were in plain sight. This lag in taking action has surely exacerbated the situation because it’s best…

Russian Surprises
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Russian Surprises

As the tragedies in Ukraine and other Russian surprises have unfolded, I was most amazed by how unprepared the Russian army seems and that a ragtag team of civilians defending their homeland could put up such a fight. I always love an underdog. Along with showing the scrappiness of the Ukrainians, this serves to expose…

The Great Inflation Debate
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The Great Inflation Debate

Signs of inflation abound with chip shortages, car shortages, and sky-high lumber prices, among others. Many forecasters are predicting 70s style inflation or even stagflation.  Given the similarities in Jimmy Carter’s and Mr. Biden’s policies, it’s a valid concern.  Yet, I feel there are extenuating circumstances this time that give me hope that we can…

China Trade War
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China Trade War

The Dow Jones market index fell 3% yesterday on news that the China trade war is escalating. President Trump is hiking tariffs on China in round two, with China responding by depreciating its currency. When the World Trade Organization welcomed China in December 2001, many changes had been required of China in order to be…

In the Wake of Harvey

In the Wake of Harvey

The devastation from Hurricane Harvey is widespread and disheartening. However, the outpouring of aid and the community spirit that have arisen in the face of the tragedy are inspiring, and they seem to be born of the famous, independent, hardscrabble Texan mindset. As I ponder ways this calamity will play out in the financial markets,…

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